Lack of Clear Guidance on the Geopolitical Situation, Repeated Swings in Macro Sentiment Put Futures Under Pressure Again [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Apr 2026 Tin Midday Commentary

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2605 contract fell rapidly after opening and closed at 362,510 yuan/mt, down 2.59. LME three-month tin was last quoted at $45,945/mt, down 3.17.

The current core market logic remained dominated by developments in the Middle East situation outside China. Recent signals on the situation's development were still unclear, and market sentiment showed repeated fluctuations. Progress in diplomatic negotiations was limited, and differences remained in statements from the US and Iran, raising market concerns that the conflict could be prolonged. Affected by expectations of restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure, Brent crude oil futures remained at high levels. On the other hand, elevated energy prices continued to push up inflation expectations and translated into safe-haven appeal for the US dollar. The latest US dollar index (DXY) remained strong near 99.8. The combination of a strong US dollar and high oil prices directly pressured the currencies of net energy-importing countries such as the eurozone and Japan, while also creating phased pressure on risk assets such as commodities including base metals, dragging overall futures under pressure.

Against the backdrop of still-unclear macro guidance, today's decline in futures prices drove a marginal improvement in spot trades. Some downstream enterprises appropriately followed on dips, mainly to meet rigid near-term production needs through restocking. In addition, given the current low visible inventory in the tin market, overall circulating supply in the market was not seen as ample, and suppliers maintained steady offer sentiment. Low inventory and moderate buying follow-through gave spot premiums certain resilience amid the decline in futures.

Overall, the current market was facing a tug-of-war between macro-level "pressure from uncertainty" and fundamental-side "support from low inventory and dip-buying." In the short term, futures are still expected to be constrained by disruptions from Middle East geopolitical news and fluctuations in the US dollar index. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to the direction of crude oil prices, actual progress in diplomatic negotiations outside China, and the sustainability of rigid-demand restocking on the spot side after prices pull back.