Björn Junker 26. March 2026
In principle, the basic rule of the stock market is: when the US dollar rises, commodities and gold immediately come under pressure. But today everything is different. For the first time in weeks, we are seeing a rare trio at the top: gold, crude oil and the US Dollar Index are rising at the same time.
While the Dollar Index climbed by 0.42% by early evening U.S. East Coast time on March 25, 2026, WTI crude oil made a strong jump, rising 3.30% to $91.30. But the real eye-catcher that day was the precious metals, especially gold, which rose by more than $30 to $4,506 per ounce.
This was unusual enough, as gold and the US dollar rising in parallel is about as rare as snow in midsummer. But that is not all: in the weeks and months ahead, gold investors may also need to brace for a few surprises, because in April gold could face headwinds from a side that has so far clearly been regarded as pro-gold.
The “Putin factor”: Russia’s new gold ban
Behind the scenes, something is currently brewing that could soon shake up the gold charts considerably, as the Kremlin has laid down the law in recent days. From May 1, Russia will drastically restrict the export of gold bars.
With this decree, the Kremlin is taking on the fight against the shadow economy and money laundering in the country. Gold plays a central role here, because according to the Russian government, gold is increasingly being used in Russia as a substitute currency for illegal transactions and capital flight.
This is to be put to a stop. Therefore, from May 1, 2026, private individuals in Russia will be allowed to take a maximum of 100 grams of gold out of the country. Depending on the ruble’s daily exchange rate, this corresponds to a value of around $15,000. The new regulation is not insignificant, because after China, Russia is currently the world’s second-largest gold producer, and when the rules change in Russia, it does not leave the global market unaffected.
Is another gold sell-off looming in April?
Some analysts are already alarmed and expect another shock in the gold market. Since the law does not take effect until May, a veritable wave of selling is expected for April. Anyone in Russia who owns gold and wants to quickly turn it into cash or move it out of the country must act immediately.
As a result, the gold market could potentially face a flood of Russian gold sellers in April. While the yellow metal is currently still recovering from recent losses, there is a risk that the Russian export clampdown will abruptly halt this uptrend and soon send the yellow metal back into decline.
In April, gold investors should therefore not only focus on how strong or weak the US dollar is at the moment, but also keep Russia in view at all times and examine how much gold will be pushing from Russian vaults onto the international market in the coming weeks.
The risk is real. However, the positive for gold investors is that it is limited in time. From early May, significantly less private gold from Russia is likely to flow into the gold market again.
Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-in-a-state-of-emergency-dollar-up-oil-up-and-russia-turns-off-the-tap/
