This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week.
On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week.
Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt.
Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.
