Macro Sentiment Drove SHFE Lead Rise, Prices Maintained Fluctuating Trend amid Weak Fundamentals [Lead Futures Brief]

SMM, April 8:

The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,775 yuan/mt during the session. In early trading, eased geopolitical tensions drove a broad rally across non-ferrous metals, pushing SHFE lead prices to fluctuate upward and touch a high of 16,885 yuan/mt. However, as fundamentals provided weak support for lead prices, the price center shifted lower. From mid-session to the close, prices moved sideways within the range of 16,790-16,855 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,800 yuan/mt with a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Tensions in the Middle East eased significantly today, with relevant parties including the US and Iran reaching a temporary ceasefire consensus, reducing the risk of regional conflict escalation. The recovery in macro sentiment drove lead prices higher. On the fundamentals side, some secondary lead smelters planned to cut production due to shrinking scrap battery recycling volumes. Combined with the concurrent resumption and maintenance at secondary lead smelters in April, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts on the supply side intensified. On the consumption side, the ongoing traditional off-season continued to weigh on demand, with downstream battery manufacturers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak purchase willingness. Under the combined influence of sentiment-driven support and fundamental tug-of-war, SHFE lead prices are expected to hover at highs in the near term.

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