A Massive Drop of 57.59%! Tungsten Prices Halved from Highs as Weak Downstream Demand Erased Wolframite Concentrates' Year-to-Date Gains [SMM Commentary]

Persistent weakness in downstream demand dragged the tungsten market lower. As of May 19, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was quoted at 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). The current price has not only completely erased all gains accumulated within the year but also pulled back from the year-end 2025 price. Moreover, in just over two months, the average price has fallen 57.59% from its intra-year historical high. End-users have adopted a cautious purchasing stance, with weak demand transmitting upstream level by level, continuously exerting significant downward pressure on raw material prices. Under such circumstances, how will tungsten prices perform going forward?

Wolframite Concentrates Continue to Decline, with All Intra-Year Gains Fully Retraced

According to SMM quotations, on May 19, the quotation range for wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 445,000–446,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with a market average price of 445,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 3.26% from the previous trading day.

In a horizontal comparison, the current average price pulled back 8,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the average of 453,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on December 31, 2025, with all previously accumulated gains within the year fully retraced.

Looking at the intra-year price trend, the current price has significantly departed from its highs. Compared to the intra-year historical average high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) recorded on March 16 this year, the average price of wolframite concentrates has cumulatively plunged 605,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) in just over two months, a cumulative decline of 57.59%, representing a highly significant pullback.

Outlook

Overall, there are currently no substantive positive factors underpinning the market. Downstream mainstream consumers such as cemented carbide and machining enterprises have adopted a conservative purchasing mindset, generally adhering to a strategy of "purchasing as needed and strictly controlling inventory," with overall end-use demand remaining persistently weak. Sluggish demand has directly dragged down upstream smelting-stage demand for products such as APT and tungsten powder, with operational pressure transmitting upstream level by level, continuously suppressing tungsten concentrates raw material prices. Even if mining controls remain stringent going forward and the commissioning progress of low-grade tungsten mines falls short of market expectations, the support from the supply side remains limited and is unlikely to offset the downward pressure brought by weak end-use demand.

In the short term, the market lacks sufficient momentum to support a strong price rebound. Tungsten product prices are expected to move sideways amid the interplay between weak demand and low raw material costs. Close attention should be paid to subsequent long-term contract pricing by major tungsten enterprises for guidance on tungsten prices. From a medium and long-term perspective, China's primary tungsten ore mining scale and production are still expected to continue their YoY declining trend. However, during the previous tungsten price surge cycle, the terminal tungsten consumption structure underwent deep optimization, with tungsten consumption in low-value-added sectors gradually being cleared; coupled with the cemented carbide industry's continuous quality upgrades, extended tool service life, and accelerated transition toward high-end products, multiple factors have resulted in China's actual tungsten consumption volume falling short of earlier market expectations.

Against this backdrop, the tungsten industry's supply-demand pattern has undergone a fundamental shift—from the previous logic of price increases driven by mine-side supply contraction, it has officially transitioned to a new pattern of "demand-led, structure-priced, cost-supported, and expectations-driven."