Macro Sentiment Continuously Drove Center Upward, Futures Fluctuated at Highs Suppressing Market [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, May 22, 2026

This morning, the tin market in and outside China generally held up well with a fluctuating upward trend. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 414,000 yuan/mt. The futures price center steadily moved up during the morning session, closing at 420,040 yuan/mt at 11:00, up 0.08%. On the LME side, after futures prices slid yesterday afternoon, the center gradually rebounded. LME three-month tin was last quoted at $53,980/mt, up 0.34%.

On the macro front:

(1) Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 21 to study work on advancing the building of a unified national market, approve the 15th Five-Year Plan for Modern Emergency System Development, and discuss the Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China (Revised Draft). The meeting noted the need to further advance high-standard connectivity of market facilities, smooth economic circulation, and effectively reduce logistics costs across society.

(2) US Secretary of State Rubio stated on May 21 that the US was engaging with Cuba and hoped to reach an agreement through negotiations, but there was no substantive progress at present and the likelihood of reaching an agreement was low.Brief comment: China's high-level meetings deployed long-term economic and logistics infrastructure plans, releasing positive signals for the long-term economic environment. Ex-China, relevant parties disclosed progress on geopolitical communication, but expectations for reaching a substantive agreement remained low, with geopolitical rivalry continuing as the norm. Overall macro sentiment showed mild and slightly warm guidance.

As futures prices strengthened again, the spot market atmosphere showed mediocre performance overall. Facing persistently high raw material prices, end-users generally tended to compress material turnover scale to reduce capital occupation risks. Meanwhile, market feedback indicated that actual end-use consumption in May was tepid, with limited release of new orders. The weak end-use demand performance transmitted to downstream enterprises. Against the backdrop of lackluster order follow-through, procurement enthusiasm across the industry chain remained low, with spot orders following only on rigid demand.

Overall, amid the tug-of-war between macro expectations and weak fundamentals, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within the current range in the short term, with news-driven fluctuations potentially widening the range of sideways movement.