Fed Minutes Signal Shift to Tightening Policy Amid Inflation Concerns, Surprising Markets

Published: May 23, 2026 15:27

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The US Fed meeting minutes revealed that many policymakers were inclined to abandon the easing bias, with most participants indicating that if inflation remained persistently above the 2% level, it would be necessary to tighten policy. Only a few officials supported future interest rate cuts, and the hawkish tone of the language far exceeded market expectations. Additionally, according to CME data, the market is now pricing in a 60% probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points before year-end, while expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have virtually disappeared.

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