Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (May 25)

According to data released by the German Steel Federation (WV Stahl), Germany's crude steel production surged by 15.3% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 3.51 million metric tons (mt), bringing cumulative production for the first four months of the year (January-April 2026) to 13.56 million mt, up 9.1% compared to the same period in 2025. This production increase was primarily led by the oxygen-blown blast furnace route, which jumped 16.9% year-on-year in April to 2.45 million mt, while electric arc furnace (EAF) production rose by 11.7% to 1.06 million mt during the month. Despite these positive figures, WV Stahl stressed that this output spike reflects a low statistical base from 2025 rather than an industrial turnaround.

Supply-demand fundamentals of hot-rolled coil side, maintenance in early to mid-June will have limited impact and will drive hot-rolled coil supply to rebound. Demand is unlikely to deliver impressive performance against the backdrop of an overall off-season for steel consumption. SMM expects hot-rolled coil inventory to continue destocking in early to mid-June, with the pace of inventory decline expected to slow down in late June, with a probability of inventory buildup. Supply-demand imbalance accumulation will be limited in early to mid-June. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact from the raw material side and export order-taking conditions.

US exports of structural pipe and tube totaled 13,425 metric tons (mt) in March 2026, marking a 10.1% decline compared to the 14,927 mt exported in February, and dropping 7.6% relative to March 2025 volumes. Reflecting weaker pricing segments, the total export value compressed to $27.0 million from $29.8 million in the previous month and $29.2 million in the prior year. Cross-border regional supply chains within North America continued to absorb the entire output, with shipments to Canada hitting 11,210 mt (down from 12,410 mt in February) and exports to Mexico settling at 1,812 mt, while no other single international destination exceeded 200 mt. The market impact indicates a temporary cooling in commercial construction and structural fabrication activities within the USMCA trade block.