Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (May 25)

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On May 25, the combined daily trading volume of HRC from SMM's sample enterprises across four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 14,210 mt, up 450 mt DoD (+3.3%), up 6.04% YoY (solar calendar), and up 62.59% YoY (lunar calendar).

According to data released by the German Steel Federation (WV Stahl), Germany's crude steel production surged by 15.3% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 3.51 million metric tons (mt), bringing cumulative production for the first four months of the year (January-April 2026) to 13.56 million mt, up 9.1% compared to the same period in 2025. This production increase was primarily led by the oxygen-blown blast furnace route, which jumped 16.9% year-on-year in April to 2.45 million mt, while electric arc furnace (EAF) production rose by 11.7% to 1.06 million mt during the month. Despite these positive figures, WV Stahl stressed that this output spike reflects a low statistical base from 2025 rather than an industrial turnaround.

Supply-demand fundamentals of hot-rolled coil side, maintenance in early to mid-June will have limited impact and will drive hot-rolled coil supply to rebound. Demand is unlikely to deliver impressive performance against the backdrop of an overall off-season for steel consumption. SMM expects hot-rolled coil inventory to continue destocking in early to mid-June, with the pace of inventory decline expected to slow down in late June, with a probability of inventory buildup. Supply-demand imbalance accumulation will be limited in early to mid-June. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact from the raw material side and export order-taking conditions.