ICSG: Global Copper Mine Production Flat in Q1, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.5.25 Monday
Futures: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,624.5/mt, swung wildly in early trading to touch a low of $13,575.5/mt, then the price center shifted upward to reach a high of $13,678/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,635/mt, up 0.18%, with trading volume at 16,200 lots and open interest at 269,000 lots, down 3,435 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,870 yuan/mt, with the price center fluctuating downward in early trading to touch a low of 104,420 yuan/mt, then fluctuating upward to reach 105,280 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 105,090 yuan/mt, up 0.58%, with trading volume at 33,600 lots and open interest at 172,000 lots, up 627 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on global copper supply and demand for March 2026 in its monthly report published in May 2026. Preliminary data showed that global copper mine production was basically flat in Q1 2026, with copper concentrates production declining 1.1% offset by a 3.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrodeposition (SX-EW) production. Although global mine production benefited from additional output from capacity ramp-ups at projects in multiple countries, significant declines in copper concentrates production in Chile, DRC, and Indonesia offset global growth. In Indonesia, copper concentrates production at the Grasberg mine fell 42% as the severe mud inflow event in September last year continued to impact production. Chile's mine production declined 5.8%, with increased production at Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca offset by production cuts at Spence, El Teniente, Escondida, and Los Pelambres. DRC mine production is estimated to have grown only 0.5%: SX-EW production increased approximately 10%, but was partially offset by a 36% decline in copper concentrates production, the latter due to reduced production at the Kamoa mine (affected by the 2025 earthquake event).
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 22, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2606 contract were quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2606 contract showed a consolidating upward trend, opening at 103,950 yuan/mt. After opening, prices edged up then pulled back, ranging between 104,170 yuan/mt and 104,370 yuan/mt. Prices then rose with multiple pullbacks, reaching a high of 104,700 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 104,480 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 110 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the current-month 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 400 yuan/mt to a loss of 330 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, some downstream processing enterprises have restocking demand, with procurement sentiment rebounding slightly, but constrained by high copper prices, actual procurement volume increases are expected to be limited. Market performance side, suppliers continued to lower quotes during the second trading session, with willingness to sell rising, but suppressed by weakening consumption demand, actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to maintain a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On May 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 210 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,570 yuan/mt, down 955 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,465 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream operating rates declined and procurement volumes fell, with spot trades remaining inactive.
(3) Imported copper: On May 22, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $72/mt (price range $68-76/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $71/mt (price range $66-76/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day to $41/mt (price range $38-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May and early June.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 22 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,480 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was -45 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On May 22, copper scrap prices fell 400 yuan/mt MoM; the copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.73, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2.23. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,536 yuan/mt, down 8 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,350 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, imported copper scrap traders noted that ex-China #2 copper semis prices have been surging recently, approaching #1 copper semis prices, while bare bright copper and other copper semis arriving at ports were sold out immediately, with inventory at relatively low levels.
Prices: On the macro front, the US-Iran agreement has not yet been finalised. Trump stated the deal was largely done but there was no rush to sign, demanding Iran abandon highly enriched uranium. Israel opposed the agreement, preparing for high-intensity operations and demanding the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear facilities; the next round of talks may be held on June 5. On the economic front, White House economic adviser Hassett indicated that if the agreement is reached, it could lead to a sharp drop in energy prices, thereby creating room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, the current interest rate futures market has fully priced in the US Fed raising rates as early as October and hiking by 25 basis points before year-end. Rising market expectations of a US-Iran deal pushed the copper price center higher. Fundamentals side, copper cathode spot cargo supply was ample, with imported copper continuing to arrive at ports and enter warehouses. However, elevated copper prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with enterprises mostly restocking on an as-needed basis. Market trades were sluggish, and demand-side recovery remained weak. Overall, spot copper prices are expected to move sideways in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]