Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (May 25)

Supply-demand fundamentals of hot-rolled coil side, maintenance in early to mid-June will have limited impact and will drive hot-rolled coil supply to rebound. Demand is unlikely to deliver impressive performance against the backdrop of an overall off-season for steel consumption. SMM expects hot-rolled coil inventory to continue destocking in early to mid-June, with the pace of inventory decline expected to slow down in late June, with a probability of inventory buildup. Supply-demand imbalance accumulation will be limited in early to mid-June. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact from the raw material side and export order-taking conditions.

According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce, United States imports of tin plate experienced a sharp decline in March 2026, falling 20.2% month-on-month to 59,578 metric tons (mt) compared to 74,614 mt in February, and registering a 5.0% drop compared to March 2025. Total import value for the month contracted to $84.22 million, down from $107.01 million in the previous month and $92.67 million in the corresponding period last year. Canada remained the top primary exporter to the US market with 11,812 mt (down from 13,010 mt in Feb), followed by Germany with 9,901 mt, Japan with 9,814 mt, South Korea with 7,422 mt, and the Netherlands with 5,422 mt.

According to the Brazil Steel Institute (Aço Brasil), the country's finished steel trade deficit narrowed significantly in the first four months of 2026, dropping to 425,000 metric tons (mt)—a sharp contraction compared to the 1.1 million mt deficit recorded in the same period of 2025. Cumulative finished steel imports for January-April 2026 fell by 25.1% year-on-year to 1.1 million mt, while domestic sales by Brazilian mills rose by 6.3% year-on-year to 6.3 million mt, pushing total apparent domestic consumption to 7.1 million mt. Despite the narrowing deficit, Brazil remained a net importer as exports decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 715,000 mt, while crude steel production for the period registered a 4.2% increase to 11.2 million mt.