Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied, touching a low of $1,995/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%.
On the macro front:
Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented." US Fed Governor Waller stated that the current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the near term, and that interest rate hikes would be needed if inflation expectations become unanchored. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett noted that a potential US-Iran deal could lead to a significant drop in energy prices and create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. China's Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to April, national foreign investment absorption totaled 287.69 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY. The CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund business activities. The PBOC announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a tenor of one year. Hong Kong's stock market was closed on Monday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended.
:
In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, warrant quotations remained scarce, and suppliers mainly traded cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped along with the market. However, some smelters held prices firm on shipments due to limited inventory. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Additionally, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead losses were repaired, and smelter shipment sentiment improved. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few premiums of 50 yuan/mt still available. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, especially after lead prices rose, with more downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and declining inquiry enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions.
Inventory: On May 22, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 286,475 mt. As of May 21, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 73,300 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from May 14.
Lead price forecast for today:
Lower lead futures prices generated some stocking demand from downstream buyers on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after testing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is expected to put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices.
Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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