China's Tin Market Showed an Overall Weak Supply-Demand Pattern, with Limited Acceptance of High Prices on the Consumption Side [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, May 25, 2026

Last week, on the macro front, the minutes of the US Fed's April policy meeting showed that most participants emphasized that if inflation remained persistently above the target level, appropriate policy tightening would become warranted. This hawkish signal put metal prices under pressure. Meanwhile, high-level China-US dialogue continued to advance trade and economic cooperation, but market concerns over the global economic outlook had not fully dissipated, and fluctuations in the US dollar's trajectory brought uncertainty to tin prices. China's tin market overall exhibited a pattern of weakness in both supply and demand. Supply side, smelters primarily focused on maintaining stable production. Affected by local road maintenance in the Yunnan region disrupting raw material transportation, overall utilization rates edged down slightly, declining from 65% the previous week to 64.18%. Demand side, performance remained subdued. Suppressed by the inhibiting effect of high tin prices, downstream and end-user enterprises maintained depressed procurement sentiment, mostly adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach and only making small-batch spot order purchases around rigid demand orders. During the week, as the tin price center pulled back, market transactions recovered somewhat, with downstream participants showing a certain willingness to test the waters with low-price pending orders. However, overall buying sentiment still leaned toward caution, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm as well as brand premium quotations remained stable.

Overall, from a macro perspective, the US Fed's hawkish stance exerted short-term pressure on tin prices, while downstream demand lacked clear incremental drivers and end-use consumption showed limited acceptance of high prices, leaving tin prices with insufficient upward momentum. However, the continued stability of smelting-side supply also limited the room for deep price pullbacks. Tin prices are expected to stay high and move sideways. Investors should closely monitor policy developments following the inauguration of the new US Fed chair and the actual recovery pace of end-use consumption in sectors such as solder, operate cautiously, avoid chasing highs, and may consider restocking opportunities for rigid demand after pullbacks.