As the Chinese New Year approaches, supply reluctance to sell and demand wait-and-see coexist, with both supply and demand weak in the SHFE copper market [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM February 10:

Today, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average price at a premium of 5 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode prices were 101,540-101,910 yuan/mt. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise, opening at 101,840 yuan/mt. After opening, prices dropped slightly, then fluctuated between 101,460 yuan/mt and 101,650 yuan/mt, followed by an increase, touching a high of 101,850 yuan/mt twice before pulling back, closing at 101,210 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts ranged from 450 yuan/mt to 350 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper's current month contract ranged from a loss of 900 yuan/mt to 760 yuan/mt.

Intraday, both purchasing and sales sentiment declined. In the Shanghai region, copper cathode sales sentiment was 2.65, down 0.14 WoW, while purchasing sentiment was 2.55, down 0.19 WoW. At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered standard-quality copper at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, including Jinchuan (plate) and Guixi, due to scarce supply, was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt. Among these, Xiangguang, Lufang, and JCC were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt; Tiefeng initially quoted at parity but quickly adjusted to a discount of 40 yuan/mt for transactions; Jinguan, Jintun PC, and Tongguan were quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers made minor price adjustments. High-quality copper, Jinchuan (plate) and Guixi, were quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper like Tiefeng and Jinchuan ISA were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper from Myanmar, due to scarce supply, had firm prices, quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, while non-delivery brands traded successively at a discount of 160 yuan/mt to 140 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, spot premiums/discounts are expected to come under pressure. During the day, suppliers showed willingness to offload cargo, while downstream consumption weakened as some enterprises entered the holiday period and stockpiling was largely completed, leading to a slight drop in spot premiums/discounts. Supply side, previously locked-in import cargoes arrived at ports gradually, increasing market circulation volume; however, it is noteworthy that most suppliers holding delivery brands chose to hold back sales, waiting for delivery to capture gains from the price spread, resulting in a tightening of deliverable spot cargo available in the market. Meanwhile, buyer purchase willingness remained sluggish, and the market exhibited a stagnant supply-demand stalemate, which is expected to suppress the activity of spot trades and the performance of premiums/discounts.