Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (May 08)

Some major mills added maintenance shutdowns, and May supply pressure is lower than previous expectations. Demand side, sheets & plates demand is expected to weaken marginally in mid-to-late May. Hot-rolled coil inventory is expected to continue destocking over the next 2–3 weeks, with limited accumulation of supply-demand imbalances before month-end in May. The energy premium outside China is unlikely to ease in the short term, hot metal production continues at elevated levels, and coil prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the near term. The pullback in coking coal prices driven by expectations of easing U.S.-Iran tensions and the periodic weakening of hot-rolled coil export order-taking are expected to cause prices to come under pressure briefly, with limited downside.

[SMM Steel] In April 2026, China exported 9.498 million mt of steel, an increase of 363,000 mt MoM, up 4.0% MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, a decrease of 47,000 mt MoM, down 9.2% MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY.

According to CISA data, in late April 2026, key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.36 million mt of crude steel, with an average daily production of 2.036 million mt, down 3.6% MoM; pig iron production was 18.5 million mt, with an average daily production of 1.85 million mt, down 2.5% MoM; steel products production was 21.55 million mt, with an average daily production of 2.155 million mt, up 7.0% MoM. Based on this, national daily crude steel production is estimated at 2.73 million mt, down 2.3% MoM; daily pig iron production at 2.33 million mt, down 2.4% MoM; and daily steel products production at 4.28 million mt, up 3.0% MoM.