[SMM Analysis] This Week, the MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte Markets Showed a Pattern of Weak Supply and Demand on Both Sides, with the Coefficient Remaining Stable

This week, the MHP market remained in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with transactions relatively sluggish. Supply side, spot cargo circulation in the market was limited, and some traders stopped offering prices; demand side, downstream nickel salt prices dropped slightly, and nickel salt smelters showed low acceptance of high-priced MHP, with demand also entering a weak phase. Against this backdrop, MHP nickel payables and cobalt payables overall remained stable, and the market was in a stagnant state of “prices with no transactions.”

The high-grade nickel matte market was also in a situation of weak supply and demand with sluggish trading, and the payable indicator remained stable. In terms of economics, high-grade nickel matte had greater cost advantages over MHP as a raw material; however, in terms of actual circulation, supply remained relatively stable, mainstream suppliers had completed long-term order signing, available spot cargo in the market was limited, while demand was constrained by downstream production line compatibility, resulting in insufficient consumption capacity for high-grade nickel matte. Overall, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the high-grade nickel matte payable indicator remained at a stable level.

Sulfur market, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz had not yet resumed, and geopolitical tensions persisted. Sulfur prices remained high this week, while bullish sentiment stayed strong. QatarEnergy announced its April sulfur contract price at FOB $570/mt, up $50/mt MoM; the UAE announced its April contract price at FOB $600/mt, up $70/mt MoM. In addition, the extension of Russia’s sulfur export ban further intensified bullish sentiment. Close attention should be paid to subsequent developments in geopolitical events and the recovery of transport routes.

Nickel prices, the supply-side logic had evolved from a simple tightening in nickel ore to dual cost support of “tight ore supply + tax expectations,” providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices and jointly driving nickel prices higher MoM this week. Against the backdrop of stable payables, MHP and high-grade nickel matte prices rose in tandem with nickel prices; in addition, higher refined cobalt prices also boosted the cobalt price in MHP.