SMM, March 16:
Today, SMM assessed spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month 2603 contract at a premium of 20-200 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 110 yuan/mt. Intraday marked the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. Under the SMM price assessment methodology for #1 copper cathode, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2603 contract mostly traded at 98,640-99,510 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2604 contract traded at 99,610-98,830 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged from 270 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2604 contract stood at 100-240 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.63, down 0.24 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.53, down 0.15 MoM. . During the day, suppliers in Shanghai largely began quoting against the SHFE copper 2604 contract. At the start of morning trading, with the Contango at 180, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 130-100 yuan/mt, including discounts of 100 yuan/mt for Polish plate and JCC, and discounts of 130-120 yuan/mt for brands such as Dajiang PC, Jinchuan isa, Southeast Tiefeng, Jinfeng, and Zijin; high-quality copper Jinchuan (plate) and Guixi were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. Some suppliers also quoted Tiefeng and Zhongjin against the 03 contract at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while market transactions remained subdued. Standard-quality copper such as Jinguan, Jinxin, and Tongguan was successively traded at quoted discounts of 100-70 yuan/mt. Non-registered brands traded at discounts of 200-180 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market will officially quote against the 2604 contract. Market structure, the Contango price spread between the 2604 and 2605 contracts is expected to run at 110-60 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and with the import window wide open, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China strengthened, leaving spot premiums under pressure. Demand side, although copper prices again pulled back below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises did not improve significantly, and intraday trading remained subdued. At current price levels, end-users still held wait-and-see sentiment toward subsequent price trends, with purchasing turning cautious. Supply side, SMM recorded social inventory at 547,300 mt, down 26,600 mt from the previous period, but the absolute level remained high. Coupled with stronger import expectations, overall supply pressure still persisted. Overall, amid completed contract rollover and stronger import expectations, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, and discounts may widen further.
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