Silicon Metal Prices Tested Higher as Market Transactions Remained in Stalemate, While Polysilicon Prices Trended Downward [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM News, March 12:Silicon metal:The silicon metal market was in a stalemate this week, with the price center rising WoW while trading volume declined. As of March 12, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW; 441# silicon was at 9,300-9,600 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; and 3303# silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Supported by news such as rising energy prices, the most-traded silicon metal contract fluctuated upward during the week, with the high reaching 8,920 yuan/mt. Suppliers raised quotes slightly, and listed price-based shipments by northern silicon enterprises increased. As quotes rose, downstream inquiry and procurement activity cooled, and market trading remained sluggish.

On the demand side, the polysilicon operating rate remained stable WoW, and polysilicon silicon consumption in March is expected to be around 100,000 mt. Recently, spot polysilicon prices fell, downstream market sentiment stayed weak, and depressed polysilicon prices may affect the willingness of polysilicon enterprises to resume production. The operating rate of silicone enterprises remained stable WoW, and their consumption of silicon metal was largely stable recently. The weekly operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises increased with slight fluctuations. Continued gains in aluminum prices suppressed downstream aluminum alloy demand, and if aluminum prices continue to rise, they may negatively affect the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises later on.

On the supply side, production release from silicon metal resumptions in early March increased total silicon metal supply compared with early March. There were also scattered resumptions in southwest China recently, but as these have not yet become widespread, their impact on additional supply was very limited. On the cost side, spot prices of silicon coal and electrodes were temporarily stable recently, while petroleum coke prices rose slightly. Together with rising gasoline prices, trucking freight rates were raised slightly, providing strong cost support for silicon metal. Demand was largely stable recently. Spot silicon metal transactions remained stagnant during the week, inventory in the middle segment stayed high, downstream demand was weak, and silicon metal prices were expected to have limited room to rise or fall, with rangebound consolidation prevailing.

Polysilicon:The polysilicon price index was 45.68 yuan/kg this week, with N-type recharging polysilicon quoted at 42-50 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon at 43-45 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to fall sharply this week, and top-tier enterprises gradually began to cut prices. The market reported some spot orders by small plants at slightly below 40 yuan/kg. At present, bearish sentiment toward the outlook remained strong, downstream procurement was cautious, and market transactions were scarce. Some small and medium-sized plants that had expected to start production also showed a tendency to delay resumptions due to market conditions.

Wafer: Wafer prices eased slightly this week, with N-type 183 wafers at 1.03-1.05 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 1.13-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210 mm wafers quoted at 1.35-1.35 yuan/piece. The decline in wafer prices narrowed markedly this week, with high and low prices fluctuating by 0.02-0.03 yuan/piece. The upstream market entered a stalemate, as wafer enterprises generally faced tight cash flow while holding sufficient raw material inventory. Even the very few enterprises that had not stockpiled on a large scale remained on the sidelines, as the policy direction for the later market was still unclear, so there was no urgency to buy the dip and stockpile. By contrast, after the downstream sector priced based on anchored costs, prices improved significantly; however, as the window for the rush to export approached, battery prices began to show a pullback trend, which also created some resistance to a rebound in wafer prices. Overall, wafer prices were more heavily affected by polysilicon prices in the short term. If raw material prices did not see high-volume transactions at low prices, wafer prices were basically confirmed to have consolidated at lows; otherwise, there was still room for a further decline.

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