Published: Jul 13, 2026 at 16:00
Gold prices have rebounded from June's sharp correction, but RBC Capital Markets believes investors should be prepared for further volatility before the precious metal resumes its longer-term advance.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,165 after recovering more than 3% in July, following an almost 12% decline in June that briefly pushed prices below $4,000.
Image: Gold price in US dollars - 1 day chart
Gold Outlook: Short-Term Risks Remain
RBC says investors should not assume the recent rebound marks the start of a sustained rally.
"While we remain of the view that gold's upside story is not over, there remains the risk of near-term weakness."
The bank believes higher US interest rates and a stronger Dollar could continue weighing on bullion in the short run.
However, RBC argues much of the current macro outlook has already been priced into gold.
"We think risk is skewed to the upside in the medium term, especially towards year end."
The bank expects several potential catalysts—including renewed geopolitical uncertainty, softer US Dollar sentiment and changing expectations for bond yields—to help gold regain momentum.
"We think it's a mistake to hinge our view on the current consensus views being baked into gold prices."
RBC also believes structural demand remains intact, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold while investors are unlikely to remain underweight indefinitely.
"We think central banks remain supportive and that investors will not sit on the sidelines indefinitely."
Image: XAU/USD 6 month chart
Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: RBC Says Volatility Should Give Way to Higher Prices
Although RBC expects further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out, the bank continues to believe the broader bull market remains intact.
It argues that once current concerns over higher interest rates and Dollar strength begin to fade, long-term drivers such as government debt, reserve diversification and geopolitical uncertainty should once again support higher gold prices into year-end.
