Lack of Clear Guidance on the Geopolitical Situation, Repeated Swings in Macro Sentiment Put Futures Under Pressure Again [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Tin Midday Commentary for Apr 2026

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2605 contract fell rapidly after opening and closed at 362,510 yuan/mt, down 2.59%. On the LME, three-month tin was last quoted at $45,945/mt, down 3.17%.

The current core market logic remained dominated by developments in the Middle East situation outside China. Recent signals on how the situation may evolve were still unclear, and market sentiment showed repeated swings. Progress in diplomatic negotiations was limited, and the US and Iran still differed in their statements, raising market concerns that the conflict could be prolonged. Affected by expectations of restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure, Brent crude oil futures remained at high levels. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continued to push up inflation expectations and translated into safe-haven appeal for the US dollar. The latest US dollar index (DXY) remained strong near 99.8. The combination of a strong US dollar and high oil prices directly pressured the currencies of net energy importers such as the euro and yen, while also exerting temporary pressure on risk assets such as commodities including base metals, leaving overall futures under pressure.

Against a backdrop of still unclear macro guidance, today’s decline in futures prices led to a marginal improvement in spot trades. Some downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases on dips, mainly to meet rigid near-term production needs through restocking. In addition, given the current low visible inventory in the tin market, overall spot availability in circulation was not ample, and suppliers maintained steady offers. Low inventory and moderate buying on dips gave spot premiums some resilience amid the decline in futures.

Overall, the current market was caught between pressure from macro-level uncertainty and support from fundamentals, namely low inventory and buying on dips. In the short term, futures are still expected to be driven by disruptions from Middle East geopolitical developments and fluctuations in the US dollar index. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to the direction of crude oil prices, actual progress in diplomatic negotiations outside China, and whether rigid restocking demand in the spot market can be sustained after prices pull back.