Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in Spot Polysilicon Trading, Wafer Price Range Consolidation [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing]

SMM, July 15:

Silicon Coal

Prices:

Silicon coal market prices remained stable this week. Specifically, Gansu silicon particle coal was at 1,140 yuan/mt, and silicon mixed coal at 1,060 yuan/mt; Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon particle coal was at 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal at 855 yuan/mt; Xinjiang caking silicon coal at 1,400 yuan/mt.

Supply:

The silicon coal market currently shows significant divergence in supply. Driven by production resumptions at silicon metal enterprises during the rainy season in southwest China, some wash plants that produce based on sales slightly lifted operating rates, with their production schedules adjusting in step with downstream rigid demand. Meanwhile, wash plants that previously saw slowing shipments and accumulated high inventories are now primarily working down stocks.

Demand:

Spurred by higher overall operating rates at downstream silicon plants in southwest China, procurement volumes of raw material silicon coal also increased, though still mainly driven by rigid demand. Amid cost-control efforts, sentiment to push for lower prices remained strong.

Silicon Metal

Prices:

Yesterday, SMM assessed east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon around 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract consolidated at 8,450-8,500 yuan/mt. With a strengthening silicon metal spot-futures price spread and persistently high trucking freight rates, silicon metal prices in east China were relatively firm. Cost-side support for futures prices remained evident at the bottom, while the upside was pressured by the supply-demand relationship, keeping silicon metal prices moving sideways.

Production:

In July, silicon metal production varied across different regions. Brief maintenance or temporary shutdowns at some capacity in Xinjiang affected short-term output, while operating capacity additions in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia boosted production. Overall, total silicon metal production in July continued to increase MoM from June.

Inventory:

SMM statistics showed that as of July 9, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 553,000 mt, flat WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other areas).

Prices

DMC: The most-traded transaction prices were 12,500-12,700 yuan/mt, with an average around 12,600 yuan/mt. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream in the silicone market intensified further. With demand showing no improvement, upstream enterprises offered substantial concessions to move goods, leading to a modest uptick in inquiries. However, actual transactions remained in a tentative follow-through phase, with most mid- and downstream clients waiting for the market to reach their psychological price expectations before entering to buy.

D4: Yesterday’s quotes were 13,000-13,600 yuan/mt, with an average around 13,300 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday’s quotes were 12,800-13,000 yuan/mt, with an average around 12,900 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Yesterday’s quotes were 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, with an average around 14,150 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: yesterday's quotes ranged from 15,000 to 15,500 yuan/mt, with an average of approximately 15,250 yuan/mt.

Production:

This week, operating rates in the silicone industry exhibited structural changes. Some previously shut-down units for maintenance resumed production, but the capacity affected by new shutdowns exceeded that of the resumed units, causing overall supply to edge lower WoW.

Inventory:

As new order signings fell short of expectations while supply remained normal, upstream enterprises' inventories continued to show inventory buildup on a WoW basis.

Polysilicon

Price:

Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon quotes were 30.5-33 yuan/kg. Order signings in the market were scarce, and downstream purchase willingness was limited. A relevant meeting next week may further confirm energy consumption-related matters, triggering market caution, while prices remained temporarily stable.

Production

In July, China's production continued to rise, mainly driven by production ramp-ups in regions such as Sichuan and Yunnan.

Inventory:

Inventory started to accumulate, with limited order signings and limited ongoing orders. However, inventories at some top-tier players dropped to around 100,000 mt after shipments.

Wafer

Price

In the market, 18X wafer prices were 0.85-0.87 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices 0.95-0.97 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices 1.15-1.17 yuan/piece. This round, the lower end of the 210R and 210N ranges declined by 0.01 yuan/piece. Current prices represent actual transaction ranges, and overall wafer prices are well-supported.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, capacity rationalization has begun, with second- and third-tier enterprises leasing out production lines. External toll processing volumes and distribution ratios have adjusted. Overall, July production declined by about 2% MoM from June.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises' inventory buildup showed a diverging trend. Top-tier players' inventories have exceeded reasonable levels. Bonded zone inventory orders for shipments to India saw weakening marginal demand, while multiple African countries have moved to the forefront of exports.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices 20,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucible prices are 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucible prices 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. The lower end of the price range for large-size crucibles was slightly raised, while overall quartz sand prices remained stable.

Production

In July, China's high-purity quartz sand production schedule increased by about 5% MoM. Domestic wafer production saw a slight decline in July. After crucible prices stopped falling and stabilized, order demand improved slightly. High-purity quartz sand enterprises formulated production schedules based on crucible demand. Recently, demand for semiconductor-grade PV high-purity quartz sand has begun to pick up.

Inventory

7 In July, imported quartz sand inventory continued to increase. In Q3 2026, wafer enterprises will reasonably purchase crucibles based on planned production, and the overall quartz sand inventory level will continue to increase.