[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded slightly on July 14, and the US will block Iranian ports from 4 a.m. on July 15.

Published: Jul 14, 2026 12:04

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SMM Nickel July 14 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th; Trump: Will impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments; May take over management of the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

(2) US Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation posts another hot reading this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.

Spot Market:

On July 14, SMM #1 refined nickel price increased by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestically mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands ranged between -300-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged during the night session before consolidating in the morning session, closing the morning session at 129,250 yuan/mt, up 0.43%.

Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another unexpected turn, with synchronized rises in the US dollar and crude oil weighing on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would not raise the overall national nickel mining production quota, with any quota increases to be very limited and only granted through a strict, special approval channel for local smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract expected to trade within a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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[SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary] The US will block Iranian ports from 4 a.m. on the 15th, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in the night session and then maintained a fluctuating trend in the morning session.

[7.15 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4 a.m. on the 15th; Trump stated that a 20% fee will be charged on cargo transportation and may manage the Strait of Hormuz in the future. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged during the night session and consolidated in the morning session, closing at 129,250 yuan/mt, with an increase of 0.43%. Over the weekend, renewed tensions in the US-Iran conflict, along with a simultaneous rise in the US dollar and crude oil, exerted pressure on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would no longer raise overall national nickel ore mining production quotas, with increases to be very limited and strict exception approval channels set only for domestic smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price range at 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

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[SMM Nickel Flash News] Weekly Weather Outlook (July 15–21)

Weather conditions across the major nickel-producing regions are expected to remain generally manageable next week. Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi (Kolaka/Konawe), and Halmahera are forecast to experience frequent light to moderate showers with occasional thunderstorms, with rainfall expected to be intermittent and unlikely to cause prolonged disruptions. Zambales is likely to see the wettest conditions, with more persistent rainfall throughout the week, posing a relatively higher risk of localized impacts on mining and logistics. In contrast, Surigao is expected to remain comparatively drier, with only isolated showers. Overall, while intermittent rainfall may lead to localized operational delays, no widespread weather event is currently expected to significantly disrupt regional mining or shipping activities.

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Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Jul 14)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 14 Jul , 2026

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