[SMM Analysis] Stainless Steel Social Inventory Stopped Rising and Pulled Back, with Recovering Demand in the March-April Peak Season Driving Mild Destocking

SMM News, March 12: Total inventory across the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan stopped rising and pulled back this week, falling from 1.0164 million mt on March 5 to 998,100 mt on March 12, down 1.8% WoW.

Stainless steel social inventory posted slight destocking this week. The market has now officially entered the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” and downstream end-users gradually resumed production and operations, with stainless steel demand steadily recovering. Market inquiries and purchase activity rebounded significantly from the previous period, providing important support for the inventory pullback. Supply side, planned stainless steel production for the month is expected to remain high, and arrivals to the market stayed stable. Although recovering demand, together with the gradual pick-up of goods against previous orders, drove a slight inventory pullback, further inventory declines still face clear resistance due to pressure from the supply side. In both futures and the spot market, SS futures have continued to fluctuate since March, while guidance prices from major stainless steel mills remained flat consecutively. Although stainless steel prices were still supported on the cost side by rising nickel ore prices, upward momentum for further gains was insufficient. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong in the market, with downstream purchases mainly driven by rigid demand and stockpiling kept cautious. No large-scale restocking emerged, which to some extent limited the extent of inventory destocking. Overall, this week’s inventory stop-rising and destocking was mainly driven by factors such as recovering downstream demand as production resumed and goods pick-up for previous orders, while also being constrained by high supply, choppy futures, and wait-and-see market sentiment. Although slight destocking was achieved in the short term, further inventory declines still face considerable resistance. Whether destocking can continue will still hinge on the strength of the sustained recovery in downstream demand and the actual release on the supply side.