Urgency of Tightening Outside China Declines, SHFE Tin Fundamentals Provide Support While Maintaining Wild Swings [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 16, 2026 Tin Midday Report

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 413,000 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 404,750 yuan/mt before its center rebounded slightly, closing the morning at 411,210 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract consolidated in tandem, currently at $53,180/mt, up 0.74%.

On the macro front:

(1) US PPI fell 0.3% MoM in June, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, and was up 5.5% YoY, below the expected 6.2%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.7% YoY, below the 5.1% forecast. Among components, goods prices tumbled 1.4% MoM, with gasoline plunging 12% MoM. The pullback in energy prices was the primary driver of easing upstream inflation. Following the CPI, further cooling in PPI prompted CME interest rate futures to sharply cut the probability of a July Fed rate hike to below 10%, significantly reducing the urgency of near-term policy tightening.

(2) According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's GDP grew 4.7% YoY in H1 2026. Integrated circuit production reached 279.8 billion units, surging 23.1% YoY. The NBS noted that the explosion in demand for AI computing power and memory chips is continuing to boost semiconductor capacity release, and the new momentum in the electronics manufacturing industry chain remains in high gear.

Spot side, inquiry sentiment in the spot market picked up somewhat this morning. As absolute futures prices pulled back to some extent, downstream enterprises that had been on the sidelines showed a slight improvement in buying interest. However, overall trading remained mediocre, with the market still dominated by just-in-time demand. Most buyers only made sporadic purchases at low levels to meet immediate needs, and there was still insufficient appetite for large-scale proactive price negotiation. The pace of spot circulation remained largely normal.

Overall, the consecutive larger-than-expected cooling in US CPI and PPI data has temporarily eased the anticipated pressure from liquidity tightening outside China, providing a cushion of macro sentiment support for the metals sector. On the fundamentals front, while the spot market remained need-based and subdued amid price tug-of-war, somewhat capping price gains, the relatively low social inventory provides some support for futures. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue its pattern of wild swings within a range.