Friday, June 26, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,231.5/mt, edged up slightly to $13,308/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to touch a session low of $13,190/mt, before eventually closing at a high of $13,316/mt, up 2.22%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest stood at 248,000 lots, an increase of 306 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long position building. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened overnight at 102,180 yuan/mt, ticked up slightly to 102,600 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower to a low of 101,640 yuan/mt, before eventually closing at 102,260 yuan/mt, up 1.03%. Trading volume reached 55,000 lots, and open interest stood at 162,000 lots, a decrease of 2,799 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short position covering. On the macro front, US PCE data was broadly in line with expectations, and the US dollar index snapped a three-day winning streak. On the geopolitical front, another vessel attack occurred in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned that transits without coordination were "unacceptable," while Israel denied withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon. Tensions in the Middle East heated up again, and geopolitical risk premiums rebounded. These factors eased rate hike concerns; the US dollar stopped rising and pulled back, lifting copper prices to stabilize and rebound.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News: (1) The copper tariff review countdown is at 4 days. COMEX inventories surged to 650,000 mt (a record high), with the US now controlling 70% of global exchange inventories. Structural shortages outside the US have intensified, and Goldman Sachs raised its supply deficit estimate for markets outside the US to 640,000 mt. Pricing power is increasingly tilting toward the US. (2) Data released by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the highest level since April 2023. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose 3.4% YoY, the highest level since October 2023, broadly in line with expectations. The previous reading was revised down to 3.29% from 3.3%, while on a MoM basis, the core PCE index rose 0.3%, up from the prior month’s 0.2%.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 25, the SHFE copper 2607 contract moved lower initially before rebounding. It opened at 101,430 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly after opening, hit a session low of 100,880 yuan/mt, then stabilized and began to recover, closing at 101,400 yuan/mt. The price spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from a Contango of 10 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 60 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 130 yuan/mt and a loss of 20 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the previous night session saw copper prices pull back, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively price contracts at lower levels. Yesterday, purchasing demand rose noticeably. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm, and their subsequent motivation to sell at low prices weakened. In terms of market structure, the price spread between the front-month and next-month contracts had already shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, which could lead to some arrivals of overseas cargoes later. Taken together, with support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount today, though the discount range may narrow slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On June 25, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,140 yuan/mt, down 2,170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,045 yuan/mt, down 2,155 yuan/mt. Overall, although copper prices continued to decline, end-use demand was mediocre, and spot premiums were only flat compared to yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On June 25, the average warrant price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $67/mt (price range $62–72/mt). The average B/L price rose $2/mt to $69/mt (price range $64–74/mt). The average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt to $38/mt (price range $35–41/mt), with offers referencing cargoes arriving in early July. The SHFE/LME price ratio surged overnight. The morning market was similar to yesterday’s, with demand proving more robust; registered warrants and B/Ls for early July were completely cleared, and EQ copper also saw significant trading volumes.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 today, the most-traded futures contract closed at 103,180 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium stood at -25 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt WoW. Today, secondary copper raw material prices fell 800 yuan/mt WoW. The sentiment index for selling secondary copper raw materials dropped to 2.30, while the purchasing sentiment index dropped to 2.36. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 872 yuan/mt, down 871 yuan/mt WoW. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 340 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices briefly approached the 100,000 yuan/mt level during the day before rebounding slightly. Secondary copper raw material traders held prices firm while offering, but downstream secondary copper rod enterprises were unwilling to purchase at that moment, preferring to wait for prices to break below 100,000 yuan/mt before buying at lower levels. Copper scrap prices remained elevated due to tightening supply, leading secondary copper rod prices to trade at a premium to futures for the second consecutive day, with end-user wire and cable enterprises almost ceasing purchases.
Prices: On the fundamental side, the supply side remained generally loose. After low-priced cargoes were quickly digested, suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. On the demand side, the rebound in copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing appetite, with buying mainly for essential restocking. As of Thursday, June 25, SMM data showed that copper inventories across mainstream Chinese regions increased by 11,700 mt WoW to 206,000 mt, with total inventories up 75,900 mt from 130,100 mt in the same period last year. Taken together, copper prices are expected to fluctuate slightly higher today.
[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]
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