[Price Review]
This week (6.22-6.25), silver prices plunged sharply under pressure at highs. Amid multiple macro bearish factors, the price center of precious metals shifted down markedly WoW. The US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports. Coupled with a stronger US dollar index, precious metals faced clear suppression. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US would continue to adhere to a strong-dollar policy, and emphasized that countries such as Iran and Venezuela rejoining the dollar system in the future would help further consolidate the dollar’s international status. Affected by this, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On industrial demand, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market versus TD were basically flat WoW, and the transaction center remained mainly concentrated on the Gold Exchange TD at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, downstream enterprises’ procurement pace recovered somewhat, but overall it remained dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk; some enterprises showed pronounced fear-of-falling sentiment. On inventory, social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking. Maintenance at some smelters and delivery of export orders continued to draw down inventory, but inventory factors provided limited support to prices. On the gold/silver ratio, as of June 24, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold.
[Key Data]
Bearish:
1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated a strong-dollar stance and said the dollar’s international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding.
2. The hawkish impact of the US Fed’s June meeting continued to ferment, and several foreign investment banks raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in their latest reports.
3. US Treasury yields stayed high, with real rates continuing to suppress precious metals, and asset-allocation preferences still tilted toward US dollar assets.
[Near-Term Watch]
June 26: US Q1 final GDP;
June 27: US May core PCE price index;
July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data;
Key focus: changes in US inflation data, remarks by US Fed officials, the US dollar index trend, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation.
[Price Forecast]
Next week, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with the current core market logic centered on the US Fed’s policy path and the US dollar trend. After the June meeting, the US Fed’s hawkish stance continued to ferment; together with Bessent’s recent strong-dollar remarks driving the US dollar index higher, and US Treasury yields staying high, silver faced multiple layers of macro pressure. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market maintained an overall just-in-time procurement pattern. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven correction landscape. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingots is expected to remain on par with or at a premium of up to 20 yuan/kg over the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD contract, with limited potential for an immediate further increase in premiums. Overall, against a backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed’s hawkish stance, silver remains under correction pressure in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with market attention on further guidance from US core PCE data on expectations.
![Spot Market and China Inventory Brief Review (June 25, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/QnbfL20251217171735.jpeg)
