[SMM PV] Global Climate Changes Impact PV Power Generation: El Niño May Cause Regional Irradiance Deviation Exceeding 10%

Published: Jun 24, 2026 13:26

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The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization shows that the probability of an El Niño event occurring from June to August 2026 is as high as 80%, and it is expected to persist at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Solcast research indicates that during past strong El Niño events (especially July–September), regional differences in global surface horizontal irradiance were dramatically amplified, with maximum deviations reaching around 10%. The regional impacts are markedly divergent: irradiance in Rajasthan, India, could be about 15% above normal, and in eastern Australia about 5% above; meanwhile, key PV installation hubs such as eastern China, California in the US, and the Atacama Desert in South America will experience persistent irradiance deficits, directly weighing on actual power output from plants. This climate shift is becoming a systemic variable for the PV industry in 2026 that cannot be ignored.

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