Early Signs of Geopolitical Peace Emerge, SHFE Tin Prices Rebound as Market Sentiment Recovers [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Tin Midday Commentary on Apr 1, 2026

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2605) fluctuated and closed at 374,920 yuan/mt, up 1.53%. On the LME, three-month tin was last quoted at $47,330/mt, up 0.70%.

Current macro sentiment saw a shift in expectations under the influence of geopolitical headlines. On the one hand, rising ceasefire expectations helped repair risk appetite. The Iranian president signaled a conditional willingness for a truce, while the US said its conflict with Iran could end within “two to three weeks” and that an agreement might be reached. As a result, international crude oil prices pulled back, and the market’s earlier stagflation trading logic somewhat faded. Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 3.8%, and gains in the technology sector provided some read-through to demand expectations for the tin market’s downstream sectors, namely semiconductors and AI computing power. On the other hand, substantive geopolitical moves were still advancing. Iran’s foreign ministry said current contacts were “warnings and exchanges of views”; the US and Israel again launched airstrikes on Iran’s Isfahan steel plant; a US aircraft carrier set off for the Middle East and was expected to take two to three weeks to arrive; meanwhile, Iran warned it might strike some US technology companies. Overall, the market was trading on expectations of geopolitical easing, but the underlying game was still continuing.

Against the backdrop of recovering macro risk appetite, the rise in tin prices was supported by its fundamental backdrop. The current tin market remained in continued destocking, with global visible inventory declining continuously since mid-March. Expectations of supply-side instability still remained, while the demand side was supported by the semiconductor cycle and expectations for AI computing power. Low inventory levels gave tin prices relatively strong price elasticity when funds flowed back into the nonferrous sector.

However, after the rise in futures, actual transactions in the spot market were relatively muted. As futures prices approached 375,000 yuan/mt, the elevated price level suppressed purchase willingness among downstream enterprises. Most enterprises mainly digested existing inventory and maintained just-in-time procurement, while wait-and-see sentiment increased. At the same time, due to tight spot circulation and low social inventory, suppliers kept quotes firm, and spot premiums remained at relatively high levels, with low inventory supporting premiums.

Overall, today’s rise in tin prices was jointly driven by macro expectations of geopolitical easing and the fundamental pattern of low inventory drawdown. In the short term, the market’s trading logic tended to focus on ceasefire expectations. But in the spot market, high prices still restrained downstream transactions. Going forward, attention should be paid to substantive moves by the US and Iran over the next two to three weeks, the transmission of Nasdaq trends to demand expectations, and downstream acceptance of current high prices. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the near term.