[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (March 9–March 13), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 opened at 534 yuan/gram and closed at 541.6 yuan/gram, down 15.7 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, a decline of 2.82%. The weekly highest price was 577.85 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 522.6 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 408.75 yuan/gram and closed at 408.1 yuan/gram, down 13.8 yuan/gram WoW from last week’s settlement price, down 3.27% WoW from last week’s settlement price. The weekly highest price was 430 yuan/gram, and the weekly lowest price was 397 yuan/gram. Futures trading: The most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 recorded total trading volume of 31,227 lots during the week, with total turnover of 17.368 billion yuan and open interest of 19,989 lots; open interest decreased by 1,894 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 recorded total trading volume of 11,077 lots during the week, with total turnover of 4.616 billion yuan and open interest of 7,612 lots; open interest increased by 11 lots WoW.
At present, the US–Iran conflict remained dominated by political expectations, while the reality on the ground was still unresolved. On the political-expectations front, Trump frequently released marginal de-escalation signals to curb oil prices, saying the Iran issue was only a short-term military operation and expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran; the TACO trade pulled oil prices back to around 90. On the reality front, Mojtaba, son of Khamenei, formally succeeded to power, and Iran entered the “Era of Avengers,” beginning to threaten the Strait of Hormuz; its foreign minister said the new leadership would refuse to negotiate with Trump. If the US–Iran conflict continues to escalate, it will push up oil prices and trigger concerns over imported inflation in the US, thereby delaying the Fed’s progress on interest rate cuts. On tariffs, after reciprocal tariff was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration will seek a more solid legal basis to rebuild the tariff framework. The risk of re-inflation remained relatively high, and disputes over new tax rates and tax rebates lifted policy uncertainty to some extent. In the short term, Trump filled the tariff-rate vacuum through the 122 temporary tariff; in the medium and long-term, he may maintain a high-tariff framework via 232 and 301. In addition, the massive tax rebate pressure brought about after reciprocal tariff was ruled illegal will further increase the US fiscal burden, thereby reinforcing the logic of a weaker US dollar and providing support to precious metals overall. Supply side, NERSA announced it had formally approved Eskom’s electricity price adjustment plan for the next two years: electricity prices will be raised by 8.76% in April this year and raised again by 8.83% in April 2027. As South Africa’s PGM mining is highly dependent on electricity, rising electricity prices will continue to lift the cost center for platinum and palladium. The US Department of Commerce issued an announcement, making an affirmative preliminary anti-dumping determination on unwrought palladium imported from Russia, preliminarily determining the dumping margin for all Russian exporters/producers at 132.83%.
In terms of valuation, watch changes in the US dollar index, which involve the relative strength of currencies such as the euro and the yen. Pay attention to details on the new administrator announced by the LME. Pay attention to the March 19 FOMC meeting, changes in economic data, and the impact of Wosh’s remarks on monetary policy expectations. The precious metals sector mainly benefited from the policy and political-environment tug-of-war during the US Fed’s midterm-election time window. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium remained intact. In the short term, be alert to the risk of a phased adjustment driven by a delay in expectations for an interest rate cut; pullbacks should be viewed as medium- and long-term opportunities to add long positions. Amid high fluctuations in platinum and palladium, pay attention to position sizing. As domestic and overseas markets are not continuous, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overseas night session; investors should monitor trading prices in international markets and be wary of opening gaps.
Spot market, this week most traders holding cargo actively quoted prices. Some traders reported that supply was currently relatively ample while the market was relatively sluggish. Most downstream clients had sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines, with only some downstream buyers making small, negotiated purchases to meet order demand. Along with continued cooling in investment demand, transactions were relatively difficult and price involution was severe. Overall, spot market trading this week was generally subdued.
