Early-Month Purchasing and Stockpiling Failed to Offset the Impact of Imports, SHFE Copper Spot Premiums Remained Under Pressure [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, April 1:

In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract rose slightly before moving sideways. It opened at 96,680 yuan/mt, climbed to a high of 97,110 yuan/mt after the open, then pulled back and fluctuated between 96,750 yuan/mt and 97,100 yuan/mt, with the closing price at 95,440 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts stood at 80 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for front-month SHFE copper was at a loss of 220 yuan/mt to 160 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.69, up 0.15 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.63, down 0.24 MoM. . At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, among which Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, while Dajiang plate, Jinfeng, Chifeng Tiefeng, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper BMK was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered prices. Some standard-quality copper, such as Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, and Dajiang HS, was quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, and Jintun PC were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper BMK was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, suppliers further lowered prices. Standard-quality copper including Xiangguang, Lufang, and JCC was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to 40 yuan/mt; high-quality copper including Guiye, Jinchuan (plate), and Jintun plate was traded at quoted discounts of 50 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, while registered SX-EW copper BMK was traded at quoted discounts of 130 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, the market has recently seen concentrated arrivals of large volumes of imported copper, including Japanese copper brands such as SRP and TAMANO-P, as well as some non-registered cargoes. The continued inflow of these imported cargoes has clearly weighed on spot discounts. Demand side, after copper prices rose during the day, order volumes from end-users declined somewhat, with limited acceptance of current price levels and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices, resulting in overall weak consumption. In addition, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises engaged in pre-holiday stockpiling, and a few smelters saw relatively good transactions, but the impact of high spot inventory made it difficult to reverse the overall weak market pattern. The price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper remained narrow, reflecting that actual consumption demand still dominated the market, though the strength of demand remains to be seen. Overall, under the combined impact of pressure from imported cargoes and cautious downstream purchasing, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at discounts tomorrow.