Refined Zinc Export Window Nears Opening, Will June Exports Surge? [SMM Analysis]

SMM June 23 news:

According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in May 2026 were 5,000 mt, down 1,000 mt or 17.15% MoM and down 81.28% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports in January-May reached 54,000 mt, down 65.28% YoY. Refined zinc exports in May stood at 3,900 mt, down 0.49% MoM but up 177.81% YoY. Cumulative exports in January-May totaled 18,500 mt, up 75.56% YoY. This resulted in net refined zinc imports of 1,000 mt in May, bringing cumulative net imports in January-May to 35,600 mt.

By country, the top three sources for refined zinc imports in May were Kazakhstan (2,900 mt, 58.9%), Australia (1,000 mt, 19.56%), and India (800 mt, 15.9%); the top three export destinations were Vietnam (1,900 mt, 47.12%), Thailand (1,200 mt, 31.49%), and Indonesia (700 mt, 17.85%). The decline in refined zinc imports in May was mainly due to the continued closure of the import window; in addition, by trade mode, Kazakhstan’s imports were predominantly Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas, accounting for 58.9%. Although the export window nearly opened in May, it remained largely closed, with some traders exporting small amounts of spot refined zinc to Southeast Asia, mainly as Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas, representing over 94%. The actual export volume still requires further opening of the export window.

In June, on the macro front, geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, but amid the US Fed's hawkish stance, rate hike expectations have risen, and liquidity concerns persist. On the fundamentals side, supply-side issues outside China remain unresolved. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have gradually resumed, but this still cannot fundamentally resolve the ore shortage. Imported ore TCs have continued to decline. In smelting, South Korea's YP is under maintenance, and LME inventory stands at a relatively low level of around 120,000 mt. Domestic ore TCs in China have all turned negative, and imported TCs have fallen to $71.76/dmt. Supported by earnings from sulphuric acid and minor metals, domestic smelters have largely maintained normal operations, and so far there have been no production cuts or shutdowns due to raw material issues. The supply side remains high. However, the period from June to August is traditionally the off-season. Amid insufficient end-use consumption, social inventory has continuously accumulated to a historical high of over 270,000 mt. Overall, the trend of LME outperforming SHFE continues. The import window for refined zinc remains closed. While the export window for Southeast Asian spot cargo is open, the delivery window is closed. Imports in June are expected to stay low. Exports are expected to see a slight increase due to poor export economics. However, a significant rise in actual exports will still require the delivery window to open.

Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.