SMM Tin Morning Brief, June 26, 2026:
The most-traded SHFE tin 2607 contract closed at 382,100 yuan/mt during the daytime session on the 25th, down around 1.7%, touching a low of 380,500 yuan/mt. Over the past three sessions, it has shed over 35,000 yuan/mt, breaking through four key thresholds in succession—410,000 → 400,000 → 390,000 → 385,000—driven by bearish position building and persistent fund outflows. The overseas market stabilized first overnight: LME three-month tin closed at $50,383/mt in late trading on the 25th, up $702 or 1.40%, rebounding from the 49,500 area back above the 50,000 mark. SHFE tin 2607 during the night session (25th night–26th morning) opened lower before rebounding in step with LME, closing in a range of roughly 387,000–389,000 yuan/mt amid signs of bearish position lightening. Base metals on SHFE were mixed during the night session; copper and aluminum remained weak, while tin—having fallen the most and offering the highest elasticity—was among the contracts that staged the strongest recovery overnight. The US dollar index slipped 0.18% on the 25th to 101.43, pulling back modestly from the previous session’s 13-month high of 101.69.
Macro:
(1) Apple is undertaking one of the largest-ever strategic overhauls of its Mac chip roadmap, preparing to leapfrog straight to a next-generation processor focused on AI-enabled features in its upcoming top-tier chips. People familiar with the matter said the company is currently in the M5 series phase and plans to launch the base M6 processor for entry-level Macs as early as this year. However, the sources indicated Apple will unprecedentedly skip the high-end variant of that chip. Apple plans to introduce Pro and Max versions in 2027 as part of the next-generation M7 chip family, which will deliver more powerful computing and graphics performance. The unusual move aims to accelerate features originally slated for a later timeline. It is expected to help meet growing market demand for on-device AI capabilities and graphics-intensive software.
(2) JCET issued a stock-movement notice stating that the jump from investment to mass production in the advanced IC packaging and testing industry involves a relatively prolonged cycle. Affected by factors including equipment lead times, customer qualification progress, product planning, industry fluctuations, and market demand, there are multiple uncertainties along the way, and there may be risks of slower-than-expected capacity ramp-up not meeting expectations.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply: The tin ore tightness has yet to ease, but signs of marginal improvement are increasing. Most smelters focused on maintaining stable production in June. (2) Demand: The traditional off-season effect deepened, leaving rigid demand support coexisting with high-price resistance. Downstream procurement remained cautious, largely hand-to-mouth based on orders.
Spot market: Early on the 26th, spot premiums are expected to edge up to the 385,000–389,000 yuan/mt range, tracking the overnight futures rebound, with brands like Yunnan Tin holding firm premiums and imported tin maintaining its discount structure. Caution is warranted, however: the overnight rebound was driven by three factors—US dollar pullback + LME tin leading gains + technical short-covering—rather than any new fundamental catalyst. Whether the spot market can keep pace with futures hinges on downstream acceptance above the 380,000 level. If chasing interest remains weak, the divergence pattern of “futures up, spot stagnating, premiums widening” could re-emerge, capping the rebound’s upside. In the near term, spot trading rhythms are entirely held hostage by futures sentiment, with the 380,000 mark now a pivotal battleground between bulls and bears.
[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s in-house database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not represent direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]
![Tin markets in and outside China showed a V-shaped trend intraday, as the most-traded SHFE tin contract dipped to 375,000 before rebounding in a volatile manner[[SMM Tin Futures Briefing]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nBLhE20251217171750.jpg)
