As delivery nears, some suppliers offload goods, shifting the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums lower overall [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM July 14 news:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot price against the front-month 2607 contract was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt to 210 yuan/mt, averaging a premium of 155 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, hitting a new high for the year. In the early session, the SHFE copper 2607 contract consolidated in a range, edging up overall. It opened at 103,940 yuan/mt, fluctuated slightly after the open, mainly trading between 103,950 yuan/mt and 104,280 yuan/mt. The overall price center edged higher, closing at 104,310 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 180 yuan/mt to 340 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the front-month 2607 contract stood between a profit of 510 yuan/mt and 780 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.38, up 0.03 from the previous trading day, while purchasing sentiment was 2.66, down 0.18. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the early session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper such as JCC, Lufang, and ONSAN at a premium of 180-190 yuan/mt; high-quality copper like Jinchuan plate, Guixi, and Jintun plate at a premium of 200-250 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper BMKMOOK at a premium of 120 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the overall quotation center moved lower, with brands like Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng quoted EXW at a premium of 150-170 yuan/mt. ONSAN, Dajiang HS, etc. traded at a premium of 150-170 yuan/mt. In the second session, overall trading was sluggish. Some suppliers sold off aggressively, quoting Tiefeng, Jinguan, etc. at a premium of 80-120 yuan/mt, dragging down the overall premium center. Non-registered copper cathode gradually traded at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to parity.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, it will be the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2607 contract. SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The current open interest for the 2607 contract is about 4,500 lots. SHFE warrant data shows that on July 13, warrants totaled 47,158 mt, relatively sufficient to cover delivery demand. Supply side, social inventory has been destocking rapidly recently, mainly due to limited arrivals of domestic and imported cargoes, and the tight supply situation remains unchanged. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts widened to 180-340 yuan/mt, and the front-month contract performed strongly. In addition, some suppliers already attempted to quote against the 2608 contract today, with standard-quality copper at a premium of around 300 yuan/mt, reflecting market optimism about premiums after the contract rollover. Overall, supported by the backwardation structure and driven by delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to stay at a premium tomorrow.