Stronger US Dollar Weighs on Copper Prices; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Fell More Than 2.5% [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Thursday, June 25, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, hitting a session high of $13,289/mt shortly after the open, before its center pulled back to $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, a drop of 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, driven by long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt overnight, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, a drop of 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bearish position building.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Wednesday, June 24, Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer and a major nickel and copper producer, stated in a market review that Russia's copper concentrate production could grow by 10% this year, while copper cathode output in 2026 will stabilize at around 1 million mt. Norilsk Nickel indicated that, driven by new project launches and existing capacity upgrades for copper concentrates, Russia's copper production is expected to continue growing in 2026. In 2025, Russia's copper production is estimated at approximately 1.2 million mt of copper concentrates and 1 million mt of copper cathode. Norilsk Nickel plans to produce 336,000 to 356,000 mt of copper in 2026. Its US-sanctioned Bystrinsky plant is expected to produce 69,000 to 73,000 mt of copper concentrates.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 24, the SHFE copper 2607 contract traced an "M"-shaped pattern. It opened at 103,000 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly to a low of 102,900 yuan/mt, then edged up to a session high of 103,360 yuan/mt, traded between 103,180 yuan/mt and 103,360 yuan/mt, before another slight pullback and subsequent rise to a close at 103,180 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was between 50 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract was between a loss of 80 yuan/mt and a loss of 30 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, in terms of regional structure, available supply in Changzhou is significantly looser than before, as the previously tight pattern has effectively eased, weakening support for local spot premiums. From the perspective of supplier behavior, as the month-end payment period approaches, the market's sentiment to offload remains high, with suppliers showing strong willingness to cut their quotes continuously. The discount on some brands widened to around 100 yuan/mt during the day, and this trend is expected to continue today. On the demand side, after the decline in copper prices, some copper semis processing enterprises reported a pickup in orders. According to SMM, some end-user orders were concentrated in the 102,500-103,000 yuan/mt range, indicating that current price levels are moderately attractive and dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, as suppliers are significantly cutting prices to sell, downstream users are still mainly pushing for lower prices, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The import loss narrowed sharply to 80-30 yuan/mt, approaching the import break-even point, requiring attention to the inflow of overseas supply in the future. In summary, under the combined influence of offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount or widen slightly today.
(2) Guangdong: On June 24, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Overall, as copper prices continued to decline, suppliers began to hold prices firm while selling, spot premiums bottomed out, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On June 24, the average warrant price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price rose by $4/mt to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $3/mt to $35/mt (price range: $32-38/mt), with quotations referenced arrivals in early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 24, as of 11:30, futures closing price was 103,180 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -40 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices were down 500 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.33, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.41. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,743 yuan/mt, down 232 yuan/mt MoM. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 490 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices weakened, many copper scrap suppliers opted to hold prices firm while selling, while secondary copper rod enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish market transactions.
Price: On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the US dollar’s dominant status and praised Warsh’s move to eliminate forward guidance. The strengthening US dollar index weighed on copper prices. On the US-Iran conflict, navigation pressure in the Strait of Hormuz eased significantly, and the US and Iran will continue technical consultations at the end of this month. Israel again took a hard line, stating it would not withdraw from Lebanon. Overall, a stronger US dollar combined with easing geopolitical risk premiums led to copper prices opening and moving lower yesterday. On the fundamentals front, supply side, the market sentiment to offload remained, but as copper prices continued to pull back, some suppliers began to hold prices firm while selling; demand side, downstream players continued to push for lower prices, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and edge lower today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]