Macro Expectations Tug-of-War: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated at Highs Before Dropping Back Slightly [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of March 10, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated at highs before loosening and moving lower, closing at 394,300 yuan/mt at midday, up 2.64%. Overseas, three-month LME tin weakened after a decline and then traded in a soft consolidation, temporarily quoted at $49,920/mt, down 0.35%.

The current market stalemate between bulls and bears remained unchanged. The ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation, coupled with inflationary pressure, kept the US dollar in a complex tug-of-war. Domestically, the Two Sessions released positive signals. According to reports, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will advance 109 major projects and programs under the 15th Five-Year Plan, launching a batch of initiatives to expand effective investment, with a focus on the construction of the “six networks” including water networks, power grids, computing power networks, new-type communications networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks, as well as comprehensive three-dimensional transportation facilities, the low-altitude economy, “AI+”, and infrastructure and public service facilities such as education and healthcare. Preliminary estimates put investment in these areas at more than 7 trillion yuan this year. Domestic supportive policies provided long-term support for tin’s demand outlook in areas such as computing power networks and power grids, but it will still take time for policy implementation to translate into actual demand.

Spot, trading was relatively quiet in the market this morning, and downstream enterprises mostly maintained operations by digesting inventories. In the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” in previous years, demand performance this year fell short of expectations. Under the inflation trend, overseas end-use consumption was cautious, and the pace of demand transmission across all links of the industry chain was relatively slow.

The market was currently in a vacuum period in terms of macro and news factors, and overall guidance remained unclear for the time being. Tin prices are expected to be dominated by rangebound fluctuations in the short term, with the price center possibly edging lower in consolidation. Going forward, close attention should be paid to developments in the overseas situation and to the substantive follow-through of downstream demand after domestic policies are implemented.