Wafer Top-Tier Player Production Cut Plan Adjustment, Solar Cell Industry Inventory Buildup Continues [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, July 14:

Wafer

prices: Market prices for 18X wafers stood at 0.85-0.87 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.95-0.97 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.15-1.17 yuan/piece. The lower end of the 210R and 210N price ranges dipped by 0.01 yuan/piece this round; these levels represent actual transaction prices in the market. Top-tier player quotes remained at the high end of the range, providing strong overall support for wafer prices.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, a top-tier player adjusted its production cut plan, keeping actual output flat MoM from June. Additionally, integrated enterprises ramped up production, and the total toll processing volume and distribution share shifted. Overall, July production is expected to fall by about 2% MoM.

Inventory: Wafer enterprise inventory buildup showed divergence. Top-tier player inventories have already exceeded reasonable ranges, while bonded zone inventory orders saw weakening marginal demand from India-bound shipments, as multiple African nations emerged as top export destinations.

Solar cell

prices: Today, full-format Topcon cell transaction prices declined in tandem. 183N and 210R transaction prices fell to 0.265 yuan/W, while 210N pulled back to 0.27-0.275 yuan/W. The short-lived price stabilization driven by expectations for production cuts has ended, with persistent inventory buildup pressure forcing industry-wide price cuts. Terminal module procurement demand remained mediocre, and oversupply once again dominated the futures market, as transaction centers for all formats shifted downward in sync.

Production: The industry's overall expected production schedule for July remained higher than the same period in June, with production cut plans previously announced by some producers not yet materializing, leaving the industry supply side staying high.

Inventory: Total industry inventory increased further WoW this week, as the market remained in a state of inventory buildup, intensifying producers' shipment pressure.

PV film

prices:

PV-grade EVA: Spot PV-grade EVA resin prices were at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt, with a slight uptick in market prices. Maintenance shutdowns across multiple EVA units in July tightened PV-grade supply, creating a fundamental floor for spot cargo, prompting traders to raise their offers. However, downstream demand growth was limited, with film producers maintaining hand-to-mouth purchases. Under this weak supply-demand pattern, the current rally lacks sustained upward momentum. Future price trends will require close monitoring of the maintenance progress at EVA units and the switching of PV-grade production schedules.

PV film: Currently, 420g heavy-duty transparent EVA film prices stood at 5.04-5.1 yuan/m², and 380g heavy-duty EPE film prices at 5.13-5.19 yuan/m². Recent film prices, negotiated on an order-by-order basis, showed no significant adjustments. Future attention must be paid to raw material resin price trends.

Production: Overall PV-grade EVA production remained stable this week. Film producers' July production schedules were up approximately 6%-7% MoM from June, with downstream demand undergoing a minor repair though growth was limited.

Inventory: Currently, PV-grade EVA inventory remains within a reasonable range, with no destocking pressure; film manufacturers maintain procurement on demand, and no signals of concentrated restocking have been released yet.