[SMM Nickel Midday Commentary] On March 31, Nickel Prices Fell Sharply as the State Administration for Market Regulation Addressed “Involution-Style” Competition in Key Industries

SMM Nickel News, March 31:

Macro and market news:

(1) The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China. The notice mentioned comprehensively addressing "involution-style" competition. It said various anti-unfair competition measures would be used in a coordinated manner to focus on preventing and curbing "involution-style" competition in key industries and sectors such as the platform economy, PV, lithium battery, and NEV.

(2) Iran's parliamentary National Security Commission passed a bill proposing to charge fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The plan included implementing financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rial, and banning US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot market:

On March 31, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,750 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the spot premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were in the range of -800-400 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) continued to decline in early trading and closed the morning session at 134,370 yuan/mt, down 1.13%.

Supply side, tightening in nickel ore has evolved into dual cost support from "ore + taxes," providing solid support for the bottom of nickel prices, but weak end-use demand and continued inventory accumulation still capped upside room for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.