Cast Aluminum Futures Drift Lower, Spot Demand Under Off-Season Pressure [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: The most-traded aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 22,830 yuan/mt today, reached an intraday high of 22,945 yuan/mt and a low of 22,770 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,810 yuan/mt, edging down 20 yuan/mt or 0.09% on the day. In early trading, prices surged to the intraday high before retreating under pressure, and the full-day minute chart ran below the average price line. In the afternoon, bearish strength increased, pushing prices down to the day's low, with the decline narrowing slightly in the late session. Today's trading volume was 9,987 lots, and open interest increased by 318 lots, with capital flowing out slightly despite position building. The 4-hour DKX indicator showed bullish and bearish lines converging, the KD indicator turned downward, and the RSI value pulled back to 40.62, indicating waning short-term bullish momentum. Overall, the contract exhibited a pattern of retreat after rapid rise and consolidating on a subdued note.

Spot side: Quotes in the ADC12 market showed an overall trend of consolidating on a subdued note today. The SMM ADC12 price fell 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The pullback in aluminum prices and the weakening of cast aluminum alloy futures pressured market sentiment, with enterprise quote centers shifting down along with the cost side. Meanwhile, downstream demand continued to weaken, and the trading atmosphere remained cold, further dampening enterprises' willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, with cost support weakening and off-season demand characteristics becoming more evident, the ADC12 market is expected to mainly move sideways on a subdued note in the short term.

Import side: Overseas ADC12 quotes ranged from $3,100 to $3,200/mt, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to repair. If overseas quotes continue to pull back, the import profit window is expected to gradually open, and increased import resources will supplement the tight domestic supply to some extent.