March Aluminum Liquid Aluminum Proportion Increased More Than Expected; Is Expected to Continue Rising in April [SMM Analysis]

SMM News, March 31:

According to SMM statistics, China’s aluminum production in March 2026 (31 days) was up 1.6% YoY and up 10.7% MoM.

The month was mainly supported by the recovery in calendar days and the gradual resumption of production by downstream enterprises after the Chinese New Year. Operating rates across downstream sectors generally increased, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also rebounded, up about 9.3 percentage points MoM to 73.7%, above expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reason was that some aluminum plants saw considerable liquid aluminum sales, while sentiment for casting ingot was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. Based on SMM data on the proportion of liquid aluminum, China’s aluminum casting ingot volume in March was up 5.3% YoY and down 18.1% MoM.

Capacity changes: As of month-end March, SMM statistics showed that China’s existing aluminum capacity was about 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change for the time being.

Production forecast: Entering April 2026, as the peak season deepens, downstream enterprises’ demand for primary aluminum is expected to gradually strengthen. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to edge up. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise by 1.8 percentage points to 75.5%.

[Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Source: SMM