The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Closed Up 3.19%, with Middle East Geopolitical Risks and Low Inventory Supporting Prices [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Tin Midday Update, March 30, 2026

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2605) closed at 367,030 yuan/mt, up 11,250 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, with gains reaching 3.16%.

Macro sentiment: The Middle East situation continued to escalate, keeping shipping risk premiums elevated

The core contradiction in current macro sentiment remained concentrated on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. On the one hand, shipping showed localized signs of easing: some vessels from Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, and other countries had been permitted by Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; COSCO SHIPPING Lines also resumed new booking services from the Far East to multiple Middle Eastern countries starting March 25. But on the other hand, tensions were still escalating sharply. Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz "has been closed," while US-Israeli military strikes on Iran entered their second month. More importantly, according to US media reports, the US Department of Defense was formulating a so-called "final blow" military option against Iran, with relevant plans possibly including the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrikes. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi forces had officially joined the conflict and launched missile attacks on Israeli targets, raising market concerns that the scope of the conflict could expand to another key shipping lane—the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Although Saudi Arabia had activated its east-west pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz with transport capacity of 7 million barrels per day, risk premiums across global energy and trade routes remained elevated, and the market's trading logic had shifted from "interest rate cut expectations" to "stagflation trading."

Spot market: High prices suppressed transactions, while low inventory supported premiums

Faced with the rapid rise in futures, actual spot market transactions were relatively subdued today. On the one hand, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm due to tight circulating cargoes, and spot premiums remained at relatively high levels; on the other hand, higher absolute futures prices combined with elevated premiums significantly suppressed downstream enterprises' purchase willingness. Most enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory to maintain stable production, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Subsequent price trends require close attention to substantive developments in the geopolitical situation and downstream buyers' actual capacity to absorb high prices.