May prebaked anode exports softened; divergent regional demand to lift full-year shipments slightly[SMM Analysis]

SMM, June 23:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in May 2026 totaled 143,300 mt, down 23.28% YoY and down 45.82% MoM. The average export price for prebaked anodes in May was approximately $928.98/mt, up 6.94% YoY and up 7.70% MoM. China's cumulative prebaked anode exports from January to May reached 997,500 mt, up 8.01% YoY.

By export region within China, prebaked anode exports in May 2026 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Shandong exported 101,800 mt, accounting for 71% of the total and ranking first; followed by Hunan with 20,000 mt, 14% of the total; and Jiangsu with 15,900 mt, 11% of the total.

By destination country, the main export markets in May 2026 were Norway, the UAE, and Malaysia, which together accounted for about 57% of total exports. Exports to Norway were 32,400 mt (23% of total, up 30.64% YoY); to the UAE, 24,800 mt (17% of total, up 4.31% YoY); and to Malaysia, 24,700 mt (17% of total, down 25.30% YoY).

For January-May 2026, cumulative prebaked anode exports rose 8.01% YoY, extending the overall expansion trend, but market patterns outside China showed clear divergence. Asia remained the core export destination, with exports to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Azerbaijan surging YoY, benefiting from robust raw material demand driven by ongoing aluminum capacity expansion. However, demand from Middle Eastern markets such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman shrank significantly, as aluminum production cuts and local supply adjustments weighed on exports. Europe saw mixed conditions: robust import demand from Norway, Iceland, Spain, and France partly offset the decline in exports to Germany and Greece. The Eurasian region was dragged down by the Russian Federation, where exports plunged 69.09% YoY, reflecting profound geopolitical and trade environment shifts that are unlikely to reverse in the near term. In North America, Canada maintained modest positive growth with relatively stable performance.

Looking ahead, the sustained release of new aluminum capacity in Southeast Asia and Northern Europe will be the main driver boosting incremental anode exports. Export volumes in May pulled back temporarily due to the procurement pace in Southeast Asia and weaker demand in the Middle East, but the offsetting effect of the new capacity in Southeast Asia cannot be overlooked. The probability of a near-term recovery in the Middle East and Russian markets is low, and exports are likely to remain at low levels. Overall, cumulative exports for the full year are still expected to maintain slight positive growth.