Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (May 7, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61.

[Key Data]

Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance.

Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations.

Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver.

Bearish:

US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market.

The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well.

China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate.

Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include:

May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes.

May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report.

May 12: US April CPI data.

In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

[Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.