This week, primary and secondary smelter maintenance increased, and the weak supply-demand pattern persisted [Lead Futures Brief Review]

SMM, June 22 –

The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. The morning session saw small fluctuations around the intraday moving average before the futures fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, the futures gradually recovered and rebounded, steadily approaching the moving average. Near the close, it moved sideways within the 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt range, eventually settling at 16,385 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.4%. Trading volume for the SHFE lead 2607 contract reached 29,824 lots, with open interest of 43,541 lots; the 2608 contract saw volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The contract rollover of the most-traded SHFE lead contract was formally completed for the 2608 contract. Currently in China, primary and secondary lead smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period, generating strong expectations of tightening lead raw material supply and providing upward support for the futures. Following the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, creating short-term rigid restocking demand. However, at the mid-year point, large downstream battery enterprises are entering their semi-annual accounting and inventory review period, which will temporarily slow down concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. With both supply and demand remaining weak, it is difficult for the supply-demand dynamics to consistently boost lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.

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