The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates Amid a Dilemma on Weak Trading and Low Inventory Support [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review for July 13, 2026

The tin market in and outside China overall showed a trend of consolidating at highs with pullbacks. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 413,000 yuan/mt and closed the morning session at 410,470 yuan/mt, down 1.51%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract consolidated on a subdued note, currently quoted at $52,700/mt, down 1.63%.

On the macro front:

(1) On July 11 local time, the US military conducted multiple rounds of airstrikes on military industrial facilities in Iran, following the expiration of the 60-day temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that all US military bases in the Middle East were designated as legitimate retaliatory targets, leading to a significant increase in shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 12 local time, US President Trump stated that the US had carried out a "fierce strike" on Iran the previous night. Regarding the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, the parties expressed conflicting views. The Iranian Persian Gulf Ports and Maritime Organization issued a notice on social media on July 12 stating that the Strait of Hormuz was currently impassable. Trump, however, claimed, "As far as the United States is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz remains open."

(2) Regarding domestic export policies, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to impose a temporary ban on the export management of helium (HS code: 2804290010). Domestic helium resources will be prioritized to guarantee the supply for wafer, HBM memory, and advanced packaging production lines. Helium is an essential specialty gas for semiconductor lithography and cooling, and overseas wafer fab raw material supply has become marginally tighter.

In the spot market, overall trading this morning was sluggish, with a relatively mediocre atmosphere. Suppliers' willingness to sell was moderate, and they maintained active quotations. However, influenced by the futures market prices remaining at a relatively high level overall, downstream and end-user enterprises were generally cautious and mostly remained on the sidelines.

In summary, the current tin market is showing a pattern of tug-of-war between longs and shorts. From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventory of tin ingots is at a relatively low level, providing support for the bottom of prices. However, from the capital side, the total open interest of the most-traded contract this month has declined compared to early June, which to some extent signals a partial limitation on the momentum for a sharp upward push in the futures market. The market's core focus is currently on changes in liquidity sentiment, and two major factors affecting liquidity expectations have recently been in a state of tug-of-war. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains locked in a cycle of "ceasefire negotiations, nullification, and renewed strikes." On the Fed front, although economic data has been released and market expectations do not consider an immediate rate adjustment imminent, several officials have made hawkish remarks under various conditions, leading the market to remain sensitive and dynamically observe the actual development of macro sentiment. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue swinging wildly within its current range.