Typhoon Disrupts Arrivals, China's Copper Social Inventory Sees Sharp Drawdown [SMM Weekly Data]

SMM, July 13 –

Data Summary: As of Monday, July 13, SMM copper inventories in major domestic regions fell by 52,200 mt WoW to 140,000 mt, with the total down 7,600 mt compared to 147,600 mt in the same period last year. All regions showed destocking.

Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported copper and domestic copper cathode continued to shrink amid typhoon disruptions, dragging inventories lower. Jiangsu also saw domestic supply arrivals suppressed by the typhoon, with destocking persisting. In Guangdong, logistics normalized and shipments increased, while consumption weakened, causing the destocking speed to moderate.

Market Outlook: On the supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic copper cathode are expected to remain low in the near term, keeping overall spot availability tight. On the demand side, although copper prices saw a slight correction, downstream purchasing interest was muted as the contract rollover approached, with demand mainly just-in-time and generally weak. A survey showed that the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to drop to 68% this week, down 2.9 percentage points WoW. Given the supply-demand balance, the domestic copper market is likely to see tight supply and only just-in-time procurement from downstream in the near term. Next week, domestic social copper inventories are expected to continue destocking, but at a moderating pace.