Indonesian Nickel Policies Boost Prices, Steel Mills Show Positive Sentiment Before Holiday

The Indonesian government reaffirmed plans to implement export duties and a windfall profit tax on low-processed nickel products, triggering a sharp rally in global metal markets. The policy aims to curb under-invoicing and smuggling while recouping state subsidies used to build the nation’s downstream industry. Following the announcement, SHFE nickel futures surged over 3.5% today, while LME nickel jumped to approximately $19,900/mt, a 2.1% daily gain. With the cost floor rising, Asian stainless steel futures have now gained over 10% since early April, reflecting a broader bullish trend across base metals.

On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

Driven primarily by price adjustments from Indonesia, Chinese Taiwan’s 300-series stainless steel HRC imports surged to 59,560 tons in March 2026, giving a 50% month-on-month increase and a 16-month peak. Indonesia’s policy of curbing nickel ore output has kept raw material costs elevated, forcing mills to hike export rates. While March saw a sharp monthly spike, total Q1 imports reached 148,354 tons, down 11.2% year-on-year. Market participants expect import prices to remain high, noting that these elevated costs will likely lead to a reduction in overall purchase volumes in the coming months.