[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Nickel Surges as Indonesia Plans Export and Windfall Taxes; LME Eyes $20,000

Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has announced plans to implement a windfall profit tax and export duties specifically targeting the nickel sector to compensate for rising energy subsidies amid global oil price volatility. While the policy is currently under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the government intends to offset these additional costs by providing strategic incentives for domestic downstream industries, particularly battery manufacturing, to ensure high domestic demand and promote the use of local raw materials.

On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

Driven primarily by price adjustments from Indonesia, Chinese Taiwan’s 300-series stainless steel HRC imports surged to 59,560 tons in March 2026, giving a 50% month-on-month increase and a 16-month peak. Indonesia’s policy of curbing nickel ore output has kept raw material costs elevated, forcing mills to hike export rates. While March saw a sharp monthly spike, total Q1 imports reached 148,354 tons, down 11.2% year-on-year. Market participants expect import prices to remain high, noting that these elevated costs will likely lead to a reduction in overall purchase volumes in the coming months.