[SMM Analysis] HRC Price Center Expected to Edge Lower in July

[SEA] Indonesian billet offers edged lower by around 2 USD/tonne to about 478 USD/tonne FOB Indonesia, as cheaper China-origin billet at around 462 USD/tonne FOB continued to pressure regional export competitiveness. Indonesian wire rod offers were largely stable at around 497–498 USD/tonne FOB, though buying interest remained limited. ASEAN buyers stayed cautious amid sluggish downstream demand, with most continuing to benchmark against lower-priced Chinese material before committing to fresh bookings.

[India] Alang HMS (80:20) held at around 393 USD/tonne EXW, with mills buying only as needed. Gujarat billet weakened to about 478 USD/tonne DAP, while rebar stayed near 533 USD/tonne EXW. In North India, billet, rebar and HMS scrap all rose, with HMS scrap reaching about 406 USD/tonne DAP. Bangladesh’s ship recycling market stayed firm, with plate prices around 529 USD/tonne despite monsoon disruptions.

[Steel Billet] Today, export billet quotations were in the doldrums, with negotiable prices at $465-467/mt. Recently, the yuan has depreciated against the dollar, leading to a slight improvement in export advantage. Inquiries from outside China increased, but actual transactions remained moderate. Market rumors suggest steel billet orders have improved, with some cargoes flowing to domestic trade or exporter short-covering, while actual overseas demand still awaits the return of China's export price advantage. [Rebar] Affected by the exchange rate depreciation, export quotations for rebar edged down $2/mt today, with negotiable prices at $484-486/mt. According to feedback from market traders, inquiries from outside China increased slightly recently, but actual transactions remained moderate. At present, quotations from steel mills in South China continue to hold at high levels, with weak transactions. [Sheets & Plates] Affected by the afternoon plunge in Chinese futures, export prices for HRC and other sheets & plates edged down slightly on a day-on-day basis today, with HRC transaction prices at $491-500/mt. In recent days, market rumors have suggested that export orders are improving. According to SMM's verification, flows to the Middle East, although shipping has become somewhat smoother, still face high freight rates, and most clients expressed the need to wait and see; however, orders for sheets & plates and billets destined for Turkey have increased noticeably recently. It is understood that this may be due to fewer arrivals of other resources, leading to procurement shifting to China.