US Dollar Breaks 101, Hits 13-Month High; SHFE Tin Falls to 380,000 Yuan Mark [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

June 24, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

The most-traded SHFE tin 2607 contract opened lower and continued to weaken in the night session, closing at 383,450 yuan/mt, down a further 10,410 yuan or 2.64%, with an intraday low of 380,500. The cumulative drop over three days was nearly 35,000 yuan/mt, breaking through four thresholds in succession — 410,000, 400,000, 390,000, and 385,000. Short positions accumulated and dominated, and signs of a funding stampede continued. In the LME market, three-month tin fell 3.23% to close at $49,500/mt, breaching the psychological $50,000 level. SHFE and LME extended losses in tandem. Overnight, SHFE base metals fell across the board (SHFE copper -2.3%, SHFE aluminum -2.13%, SHFE zinc -1.33%), while LME metals also declined universally (LME aluminum -3.63%, LME copper -2.58%). A strong US dollar and spillover from tightening trades weighed on the entire industrial metals sector, and tin, previously the "strongest performer," led the decline in a dramatic catch-up selloff.
 

Macro:

(1) The US dollar index broke above 101, hitting a 13-month high, as tightening trades broadly intensified. After the June FOMC meeting, Chair Powell’s first remarks reinforced the “price stability priority” label; the median dot plot was revised up from 3.4% to 3.8%. CME data indicated a higher probability of a 50 bp rate hike by the Fed this year, with the market pricing in roughly two hikes by Q1 2027. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.20% (+13 bp), and the 10-year yield returned to around 4.50%. The US dollar index touched 101.69 intraday on the 24th and held above 101.5 in Asian trading on the 25th. A strong dollar + rising real rates delivered a double blow to global risk assets — gold fell 3.21% to below 4,020, silver plunged 7.39%, and the Nasdaq shed over 3% in two days. The macro tightening valve was turned, and tin’s earlier “AI structural premium” was overwhelmed by systematic de-rating logic.
(2) US economic data came in strong, and the “exceptionalism” narrative regained traction. The S&P Global flash composite PMI for June was 52.2 (vs. 51.5 in May), with manufacturing output at 55.7 beating expectations and services at 51.3 also above forecasts. Combined with May retail sales rising 0.9% MoM, stronger than expected, these fundamentals supported the dollar’s strength. The Fed’s “leaning against the wind” Powell framework was backed by the data.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Tin ore tightness has not eased, but signs of marginal improvement are increasing. In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect is deepening, with restocking demand providing support while high prices continue to suppress purchases. Downstream buyers remain cautious, purchasing based on orders.

Spot market: On the morning of the 25th, prices are expected to follow the night session lower to the 385,000–390,000 yuan/mt range. After the sharp decline on the 24th, one round of restocking demand has been triggered; on the 25th, the key is whether the 380,000 integer level can spark a second round. In the near term, spot transaction rhythms are completely driven by futures market sentiment. Fundamental support at low prices remains, but macro selling pressure needs to be cleared.

[Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are derived from public data, market communications, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not rely on this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decision made by clients is not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]