Bearish Resonance Caused SHFE Tin to Lose the 410,000 Mark, and Downstream Just-in-Time Procurement Failed to Conceal the Decline [SMM Tin Morning Report]

SMM Tin Morning Brief, June 23, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2607) came under pressure and weakened during the night session, opening lower with a gap and then fluctuating downward, closing near 409,000 yuan/mt, down about 1.9%–2.0%. It reached an intraday high of 423,500 yuan/mt and a low of 407,530 yuan/mt. On the LME, three-month tin recently hovered around $53,400–$53,500/mt, with weak SHFE and LME linkage amid divergent global inventory structures. Overnight, the US dollar index remained strong and US bond yields stayed elevated. Expectations of tightening macro liquidity continued to weigh on the non-ferrous metals complex, with SHFE tin seeing bearish position building and notable capital outflows.

Macro: (1) Computing chip growth approached 50% in Q1. On the supply side, given relative shortages in KGD, a key computing chip raw material, computing chip companies need to control the pace of quarterly shipments based on inventory and future production plans to ensure sustained product supply. The company is currently distributing computing chips and cannot guarantee supply for all client demand. Currently, continued growth is maintained in Q2. Analog chip maintained stable growth in Q1. This product was not boosted by the storage cycle and is expected to maintain a stable growth rate in Q2. (2) A National Energy Administration official answered reporters’ questions regarding the Implementation Measures for the Minimum Share Targets for Renewable Energy Consumption and the Renewable Energy Electricity Consumption Weight System. In recent years, emerging sectors such as computing infrastructure, 5G base stations, and charging infrastructure have developed rapidly, with electricity demand showing explosive growth and representing a key component of future electricity consumption growth. National electricity consumption for computing power is expected to increase by over 100 billion kilowatt-hours annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Including these sectors in the assessment helps accelerate clean energy electricity coverage of the increase in total societal electricity consumption, injecting new momentum into green and low-carbon development. New energy manufacturing fields such as polysilicon and lithium-ion battery production are key links and vital supports for building a green energy industry chain. The core purpose of including these sectors is to implement the requirement for integrated and integrated development, accelerate the principle of "making green with green," set clear green energy consumption requirements for enterprises producing clean energy equipment, and gradually establish a green industrial and supply chain featuring coordinated upstream and downstream carbon reduction.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tightness in tin ore remains unresolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect deepened, with rigid demand support coexisting with high-price suppression. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with purchasing based on order situations.

Spot market: The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market was subdued. Tin prices, after a sharp rally in the earlier period, entered a rapid pullback channel. Although the absolute value pulled back, it remained in the high range above 400,000 yuan/mt. Downstream players generally held a "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn + wait-and-see for lower prices" mentality, with only sporadic restocking on dips for rigid demand and sluggish willingness for bulk stockpiling. Suppliers' premium offers eased somewhat as futures pulled back, but shipments remained sluggish.

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